The impact of liquidity constraints on the cash-futures basis dynamics: Evidence from the Chinese market

This study investigates the impact of liquidity constraints on the dynamics of the cash-futures basis in the Chinese futures market. By analyzing the trading behaviors of hedgers, speculators, and arbitrageurs in a liquidity constraint context, we document two effects: the expectation effect and the liquidity effect. We further propose a set of threshold vector error correction models (VECMs) for the CSI 300 index and CSI 300 index futures to examine these two effects separately and jointly. We find evidence for both effects. We also find that a basis-liquidity-based threshold VECM, which includes both effects, performs well in explaining why the degree of persistence of a large basis depends on the direction of divergence in the cash-futures price relationship, a stylized fact we observe in the Chinese futures market.