Synergistic Fusion of GNSS-PWV and Radar for Precipitation Nowcasting: An AI-Empowered Spatio-Temporal Attention Network

Extreme weather events exacerbated by global warming pose severe threats to urban safety, underscoring the urgent need for highly accurate precipitation nowcasting. Short-term local heavy precipitation remains a particular challenge for traditional forecasting due to its suddenness and high disaster potential. To address this, we propose a multi-modal fusion framework that integrates ground-based GNSS-derived Precipitable Water Vapor (GNSS-PWV) and ground-based Radar Composite Reflectivity (CR). While GNSS-PWV keenly captures pre-convective atmospheric water vapor accumulation, radar CR details the morphological distribution of hydrometeors. Specifically, we developed the Spatio-Temporal Enhanced Attention Swin U-Net (STEA-Swin) model to synergize these heterogeneous datasets over the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region. High-precision PWV was retrieved from 250 Continuously Operating Reference Stations (CORS) using the dual-frequency ionosphere-free Precise Point Positioning (PPP) method, achieving a strong correlation (>0.97) with ERA5 reanalysis data. Validated against measured data from the 2025 flood season, the STEA-Swin model achieved a Probability of Detection (POD) of 0.68 for torrential rain events at a +1 h forecast lead time. Notably, compared to single-source models, the Critical Success Index (CSI) and POD for torrential rain improved by 18.5% and 21.5%, respectively. These findings demonstrate that coupling deep learning with ground-based GNSS-derived atmospheric thermodynamic information can significantly enhance early warning capabilities, providing a promising technical approach for regional disaster prevention and climate resilience.