Statistical properties of country risk ratings under oil price volatility: Evidence from selected oil-exporting countries

This paper focuses on the application of panel models for identification and analysis of influence of oil price volatility on statistical properties of country risk ratings which stem from uncertainty of macroeconomic fluctuations. Firstly, two statistical properties of country risk ratings, volatility clustering and asymmetrical revision were identified in a theoretical framework based on Cruces (2006). Secondly, considering the oil price volatility, numerical experiments were conducted based on extended models to test and verify specific properties of country risk ratings in selected oil-exporting countries. Empirical results suggest that properties of country risk remain comparatively steady despite oil price volatility. It is also found that the oil price volatility can obviously exaggerate the country risk volatility, as it happened during 2007-2009. Country clustering based on the properties of country risk ratings shows that the selected countries maintain a significant clustering tendency. These features are of great importance for estimating risk exposure of international trade and investments in oil export during extreme situations.