Scenario analysis for low-Carbon urban planning: A case of kaiyuan in Yunnan province of China

With the world’s accelerating economic growth as well as the continuous expansion of the global population, the demand for energy and other resources from human society has correspondingly increased year by year. For the purpose of energy saving and environmental protection, a “low-carbon tide” has swept the globe. Despite of the bargaining in right and obligation associated with carbon emissions abatement, most countries per se have taken the low-carbon path to prepare for strategic competitiveness in the long run. Beyond all question, lowcarbon economy would be a significant issue in China’s development, which has already orientated by policies such as National twelfth Five-year plan. As a typical resource-based city, Kaiyuan has consolidated and developed several pillar industries including coal, electricity, chemical, building materials, and food industries around its coal energy industry. The well-developed industrial system and especially the heavy industries have contributed a lot to local economy, however, also brought about severe challenges to the sustainable development of Kaiyuan. As a city whose 90 % energy depends on coal, Kaiyuan is suffering serious pressure in reduction of CO₂, SO₂, and oxynitride. Therefore, supportive works for Kaiyuan’s low-carbon planning are in sore need and could make profound meaning. This paperfirstly establishes an accounting model for measurement of city’s carbon emissions in which every category, namely husbandry and energy consumption, which should be taken into account has been recognized. After the definition of accounting scope, the calculation method and standard for the emission of each category has been formulated. Some quantitative researches for the total carbon emissions and their sub-items have accordingly carried out to reveal the contradictions and problems during the development of Kaiyuan. Based on the current status as to carbon emissions, three sceneries, referred as Basic analysis unit (BAU), Basic policy (BP) and Low-carbon (LC) scenery, have been set up to check out the development goals for LC urban development of Kaiyuan. According to these analyses, some policy advices have been proposed for reference.