Reliability Modeling and Analysis of Satellite-based Phased Array Antenna

The degradation of satellite-based phased array antenna would affect the performance of the antenna, which in turn can prevent the signal from being transmitted properly. Therefore, satellite-based phased array antennas always require extremely high reliability. During the manufacturing and use stages, uncertainties are everywhere and performance degradation is inevitable. Both can threaten the reliability of satellite-based phased array antennas. However, existing studies mostly use voting models, which hardly reflect both points. In this paper, based on the principles of reliability science, a reliability model based on the performance margin is developed for satellite-based phased array antennas, considering the performance degradation and multiple sources of uncertainties. Firstly, the performance margin model for the degradation of the satellite-based phased array antenna is constructed based on its functional principle and the degradation processes of its critical components including phase shifters and power amplifiers. Then, uncertainties from different sources, including manufacturing tolerances and environmental temperature, are analyzed and each uncertainty is quantified by a probability distribution. Finally, a reliability model is developed. A numerical study of a satellite-based phased-array antenna is carried out. The results show the degradation processes of key performance parameters and reliability of the satellite-based phased array antenna during operation.