TY - GEN
T1 - Performance comparison of two truth telling incentive mechanisms
T2 - 2016 International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management, IEEM 2016
AU - Yang, Min
AU - Jia, Caijia
AU - Wang, Zhuwei
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2016 IEEE.
PY - 2016/12/27
Y1 - 2016/12/27
N2 - An experiment of predicting the result of the National Basketball Association (NBA) is designed to compare the performance of Bayesian truth serum (BTS) and robust Bayesian truth serum (RBTS) in expert truth telling incentive. It shows that 1) the fundamental hypothesis of BTS, i.e. individuals treating personal opinions as an 'impersonally informative' signal about the population distribution, is valid; 2) the relative position of the individual in a group significantly affects the individual's score of RBTS due to RBTS algorithm, which leads to a poor incentive to tell truth, while BTS does not have this problem; 3) BTS does not encourage extreme opinions, while RBTS cannot effectively reward the extreme opinions due to significant deviation of their RBTS scores. The analytic results prefer to BTS, but when the number of individuals is small, RBTS should be employed.
AB - An experiment of predicting the result of the National Basketball Association (NBA) is designed to compare the performance of Bayesian truth serum (BTS) and robust Bayesian truth serum (RBTS) in expert truth telling incentive. It shows that 1) the fundamental hypothesis of BTS, i.e. individuals treating personal opinions as an 'impersonally informative' signal about the population distribution, is valid; 2) the relative position of the individual in a group significantly affects the individual's score of RBTS due to RBTS algorithm, which leads to a poor incentive to tell truth, while BTS does not have this problem; 3) BTS does not encourage extreme opinions, while RBTS cannot effectively reward the extreme opinions due to significant deviation of their RBTS scores. The analytic results prefer to BTS, but when the number of individuals is small, RBTS should be employed.
KW - Bayesian Truth Serum
KW - NBA Playoff Prediction
KW - Robust Bayesian Truth Serum
KW - Truth Telling Incentive
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85009863262
U2 - 10.1109/IEEM.2016.7798045
DO - 10.1109/IEEM.2016.7798045
M3 - 会议稿件
AN - SCOPUS:85009863262
T3 - IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management
SP - 1085
EP - 1090
BT - 2016 International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management, IEEM 2016
PB - IEEE Computer Society
Y2 - 4 December 2016 through 7 December 2016
ER -