Notice of Retraction: CM-PMS mission performance based on fuzzy GERT

This paper presents a fuzzy graph evaluation and review technique (GERT) analytic model for multi-phased mission systems that provides a new approach to calculate mission performance of phased-mission system (PMS). The model extends traditional analytic models of PMS using logic diagram method (such as Fault Trees and Binary Decision Diagram) and state transition method (such as Markova Model). By using fuzzy GERT based on grey number, we provide a stochastic network to build the model of phased-mission which avoids the difficulty to give exact logic relation in reliability analysis method based on logic diagram and the state space explosion and the mapping problems that are encountered by the Markov chain approach, and at the same time, we use gray number to describe the phased-mission transition probability which is more easier to determine than traditional models. In this model, as the key performance indicators of PMS, mission cycle and success probability are solved. Finally, a computation study of typical carrier operational mission is given to illustrate how to apply the approach to calculate mission reliability of PMS. Furthermore, sensitivities of mission cycle and success probability in the model are analyzed.