TY - GEN
T1 - Modeling and Prediction of COVID-19 with Long Incubation Period Under High-Intensity Control in China
AU - Cui, Gen
AU - Quan, Quan
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2022, The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.
PY - 2022
Y1 - 2022
N2 - At the end of 2019, coronavirus disease (COVID-19) broke out in Wuhan, Hubei. With the spring festival travel rush, the epidemic spread rapidly to other provinces and even overseas. In the view of this epidemic, in this paper, we improved the classic SEIR model, introducing a new parameter, average delay time, to describe the incubation period and time for nucleic acid detection. Based on the data published by the National Health Commission of China, parameters of the model were estimated first. Then the model was used to simulate the development of COVID-19. The number of new confirmed cases and remaining confirmed cases of each day are predicted. Finally, the results show that the model is well fit for the actual data. By now, this epidemic has been basically under control, and under the current medical level and control measurements, it is hoped to announce the end of COVID-19 in China before May.
AB - At the end of 2019, coronavirus disease (COVID-19) broke out in Wuhan, Hubei. With the spring festival travel rush, the epidemic spread rapidly to other provinces and even overseas. In the view of this epidemic, in this paper, we improved the classic SEIR model, introducing a new parameter, average delay time, to describe the incubation period and time for nucleic acid detection. Based on the data published by the National Health Commission of China, parameters of the model were estimated first. Then the model was used to simulate the development of COVID-19. The number of new confirmed cases and remaining confirmed cases of each day are predicted. Finally, the results show that the model is well fit for the actual data. By now, this epidemic has been basically under control, and under the current medical level and control measurements, it is hoped to announce the end of COVID-19 in China before May.
KW - COVID-19
KW - Modeling and prediction
KW - SARS-CoV-2
KW - SEIR
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85120620795
U2 - 10.1007/978-981-15-8155-7_323
DO - 10.1007/978-981-15-8155-7_323
M3 - 会议稿件
AN - SCOPUS:85120620795
SN - 9789811581540
T3 - Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering
SP - 3863
EP - 3873
BT - Advances in Guidance, Navigation and Control - Proceedings of 2020 International Conference on Guidance, Navigation and Control, ICGNC 2020
A2 - Yan, Liang
A2 - Duan, Haibin
A2 - Yu, Xiang
PB - Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH
T2 - International Conference on Guidance, Navigation and Control, ICGNC 2020
Y2 - 23 October 2020 through 25 October 2020
ER -