MM-STFlowNet: A Transportation Hub-Oriented Multi-Mode Passenger Flow Prediction Method via Spatial-Temporal Dynamic Graph Modeling

Accurate and refined passenger flow prediction is essential for optimizing the collaborative management of multiple collection and distribution modes in large-scale transportation hubs. Traditional methods often focus only on the overall passenger volume, neglecting the interdependence between different modes within the hub. To address this limitation, we propose MM-STFlowNet, a comprehensive multi-mode prediction framework grounded in dynamic spatial-temporal graph modeling. Initially, an integrated temporal feature processing strategy is implemented using signal decomposition and convolution techniques to address data spikes and high volatility. Subsequently, we introduce the Spatial-Temporal Dynamic Graph Convolutional Recurrent Network (STDGCRN) to capture detailed spatial-temporal dependencies across multiple traffic modes, enhanced by an adaptive channel attention mechanism. Finally, the self-attention mechanism is applied to incorporate various external factors, further enhancing prediction accuracy. Experiments on a real-world dataset from Guangzhounan Railway Station in China demonstrate that MM-STFlowNet achieves state-of-the-art performance, with an average improvement of 52.56% in MSE and 36.38% in MAE. Especially during peak hours, it demonstrates excellent forecasting performance, providing valuable insights for transportation hub management. Our model is also demonstrated strong generalization in low-resource scenarios and different traffic scenarios.