Integrated assessment of cleaning air policy in China: A case study for Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

Since 2018, the Blue Sky Protection Campaign (BSPC) have been implemented at unprecedented levels to combat air pollution in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (JJJ) region. In this study, the GAINS IV Asia (Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies) model is used to assess the potential for air pollution abatement, air quality improvement and associated costs of the BSPC in the JJJ region. The key findings are: 1) The total energy consumption under BSPC will decrease by 3%, 2%, and 6% for Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei, respectively, by 2020 compared with the baseline scenario and Hebei is projected to experience the greatest changes in energy consumption both in absolute terms and in proportion. 2) Hebei would have the largest air pollution abatement. Compared to 2015, emissions of NO_x, PM_2.5, SO₂, and NH₃ under 2020 will be decrease by 31.3% 44.8%, 40.3%, and 10.7%, respectively. Residential and industrial combustion play vital contributions for pollution abatement, accounting for 52.3% together of Hebei's total. 3) Emissions of NO_x, PM_2.5, and SO₂ of Beijing will decrease by 21.2%, 58.7%, and 56.1% by 2020, compared to 2015. Transportation and residential sectors have key contributions to reductions. 4) The population-weighted annual PM_2.5 concentration would decrease to 41.4 μg/m³, 49.4 μg/m³, and 53.8 μg/m³ by 2020 in Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei, respectively. Finally, we recommend that actions of increasing nitrogen use efficiency of agricultural sector, super low emission standard in industrial sector, and switching off coal power plants are most cost-effective in air quality improvement during 2020–2025.