Forecast on the growth climate of China's passenger vehicle ownership

Cai Hua Xu; Ji Ping Hu; Ying Fan; Yi Ming Wei

doi:10.1504/IJFIP.2008.017584

Forecast on the growth climate of China's passenger vehicle ownership

Cai Hua Xu
, Ji Ping Hu
, Ying Fan
, Yi Ming Wei^*

^*此作品的通讯作者

CAS - Institutes of Science and Development
Beijing Jiaotong University

科研成果: 期刊稿件 › 文章 › 同行评审

2 引用（Scopus）

摘要

This paper forecasts trends of the passenger vehicle ownership ratio of China and the corresponding GDP per capita using a modified Gompertz model. It also calculates the total stock of passenger vehicles according to varying economic growth conditions for China over the period 2005 2020. The Gini factor is applied in the model as an index of the passenger vehicle ownership ratio. The results identify the per capita GDP threshold at which China can enter the 'automobile age'.

源语言	英语
页（从-至）	348-358
页数	11
期刊	International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy
卷	4
期	3-4
DOI	https://doi.org/10.1504/IJFIP.2008.017584
出版状态	已出版 - 3月 2008
已对外发布	是

联合国可持续发展目标

此成果有助于实现下列可持续发展目标：

可持续发展目标 8 体面工作和经济增长

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10.1504/IJFIP.2008.017584

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title = "Forecast on the growth climate of China's passenger vehicle ownership",

abstract = "This paper forecasts trends of the passenger vehicle ownership ratio of China and the corresponding GDP per capita using a modified Gompertz model. It also calculates the total stock of passenger vehicles according to varying economic growth conditions for China over the period 2005 2020. The Gini factor is applied in the model as an index of the passenger vehicle ownership ratio. The results identify the per capita GDP threshold at which China can enter the 'automobile age'.",

keywords = "Gini factor, Modified Gompertz model, Ownership ratio forecast, Passenger vehicle",

author = "Xu, \{Cai Hua\} and Hu, \{Ji Ping\} and Ying Fan and Wei, \{Yi Ming\}",

year = "2008",

month = mar,

doi = "10.1504/IJFIP.2008.017584",

language = "英语",

volume = "4",

pages = "348--358",

journal = "International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy",

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T1 - Forecast on the growth climate of China's passenger vehicle ownership

AU - Xu, Cai Hua

AU - Hu, Ji Ping

AU - Fan, Ying

AU - Wei, Yi Ming

PY - 2008/3

Y1 - 2008/3

N2 - This paper forecasts trends of the passenger vehicle ownership ratio of China and the corresponding GDP per capita using a modified Gompertz model. It also calculates the total stock of passenger vehicles according to varying economic growth conditions for China over the period 2005 2020. The Gini factor is applied in the model as an index of the passenger vehicle ownership ratio. The results identify the per capita GDP threshold at which China can enter the 'automobile age'.

AB - This paper forecasts trends of the passenger vehicle ownership ratio of China and the corresponding GDP per capita using a modified Gompertz model. It also calculates the total stock of passenger vehicles according to varying economic growth conditions for China over the period 2005 2020. The Gini factor is applied in the model as an index of the passenger vehicle ownership ratio. The results identify the per capita GDP threshold at which China can enter the 'automobile age'.

KW - Gini factor

KW - Modified Gompertz model

KW - Ownership ratio forecast

KW - Passenger vehicle

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/41349119400

U2 - 10.1504/IJFIP.2008.017584

DO - 10.1504/IJFIP.2008.017584

M3 - 文章

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JF - International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy

IS - 3-4

ER -

Forecast on the growth climate of China's passenger vehicle ownership

摘要

联合国可持续发展目标

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