Evolutionary dynamics of agricultural trade in Central Asia under the Belt and Road Initiative

Purpose: This study investigates the evolutionary dynamics of agricultural trade in the five Central Asian countries – Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan – within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The goal is to understand how the BRI has influenced the region’s agricultural trade network, identifying key countries and transformations in trade relationships. Design/methodology/approach: The research employs complex network analysis to map the Agricultural Trade Network (ATN) of the Central Asian countries from 2007 to 2022. The analysis covers topological evolution, community detection algorithms to identify clusters, and the examination of backbone structures to reveal changing connectivity, efficiency and influence within the network. This dynamic approach highlights the shifts driven by infrastructure, policy and market optimization under the BRI. Findings: The study finds that the BRI reconfigured Central Asia’s agricultural trade around cereals, cotton and processed goods, with China solidifying its role as a dual import–export hub. Russia’s influence waned under sanctions, while Central Asia’s integration into BRI networks fostered diversification yet heightened dependency on Sino-Russian corridors. Commodity-specific shifts underscore the interplay of infrastructure, geopolitics and evolving demand in reshaping regional trade hierarchies. Originality/value: This study provides a comprehensive and dynamic view of agricultural trade in Central Asia, applying complex network theory to capture the evolving roles of each country. It offers fresh insights into how the BRI reshapes agricultural trade and enhances regional integration, providing valuable policy recommendations for future trade strategies.