Driving factors for global civil aviation carbon emission reduction based on ADS-B big data

Given the challenges in fuel substitution, the aviation industry remains a critical bottleneck for global carbon neutrality. Based on June 2018 Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) big data, this study calculates aviation carbon emissions for 158 countries and regions. By employing an improved spatial index decomposition method, we isolate structural and intensity effects, while utilizing Logistic and Gompertz models to forecast aviation demand through 2035 and assess mitigation potentials under six scenarios. Findings indicate that global aviation carbon emissions are highly concentrated, with the United States and Chinese Mainland serving as core sources. Spatial decomposition reveals that structural effects and distance-driven intensity effects contribute similarly to emission variations across countries. However, due to rigid geographic constraints on flight distances, a single country struggle to achieve significant reductions through route optimization, limiting the efficacy of short-haul substitution in scenario simulations. Under the baseline scenario, global aviation emissions are projected to rise by 59.7% by 2035 relative to the base period. Even in the integrated scenario where carbon intensity drops to 91% of the baseline, the reduction is insufficient to offset the pressure of total emission growth driven by demand expansion. Accordingly, this paper proposes differentiated strategies: mature markets should prioritize stock mitigation through fleet renewal and cabin optimization; emerging markets should focus on external synergy by promoting air-to-rail substitution within 1000 km; and hub regions should leverage sustainable aviation fuel and carbon offset mechanisms to overcome geographic constraints. Global aviation decarbonization must shift from single technical improvement toward multi-path integrated governance.