Conceptual modeling of training and organizational risk dynamics

Training is an essential component of ensuring safe operations. Here we consider the relationship between training and organizational risk and create a conceptual model illustrating how risk is decreased by training, and how a lack of training increases risk. We construct our model by combining insights from the literature on training, both at the individual and organizational levels, with insights from the literature on accident causation. We represent risk as a combination of the probability and consequences of accidents, and training as combination of topic coverage (depth and breadth), organization coverage (how much of the organization is exposed to training), and frequency (how often it occurs). Our model incorporates several critical aspects of the relationship between training and risk. First, it captures path dependence-that is, risk does not follow the same curve when training is increased as when training is decreased. Second, and building on the first point, risk lags changes in training. When training is decreased, risk does not immediately increase, and, conversely, when training is increased, risk does not immediately decrease. This time lag can contribute to training being cut when resources are tight, or to training being seen as ineffective. Third, we consider how the characteristics of a particular organization affect the risk-training curve and demonstrate how the curve can be tailored for a particular organization.