Belief Reliability Analysis of Traffic Network: An Uncertain Percolation CML Model

Most research on traffic network reliability considered about aleatory uncertainty but ignored the effect of epistemic uncertainty which may misguide the traffic management. In this paper, we will introduce uncertainty theory and belief reliability theory to propose a belief reliability analysis method for traffic network based on the traffic performance margin. To analyze the belief reliability of roads, a method considering three uncertain factors to get the distribution function of capacity threshold will be proposed. To describe the process of traffic congestion considering both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty, an uncertain percolation coupled-map-lattice (CML) model is constructed, where the uncertain percolation model is utilized to describe the performance degradation of traffic network and the CML model is to represent the process of the load redistribution between nodes. Then, a method combing uncertain simulation and UPC model is put forward to calculate the belief reliability of traffic network. The proposed methods are illustrated with a case study.