Appraisement model of technical risk for weapon system development

In view of the technical risk's is complexity and quantitative difficulty in the process of weapon system development (WSD), a qualitative and quantitative integrated model for technical risk appraisal is given. First, main risks in the process of WSD and the relationship among them are analyzed. The concept and meaning of the technical risk in WSD are discussed. Then, a fuzzy appraisal model for technical risk based on risk factor evaluation method is described in detail, and the appraisal processes are introduced. Finally, a risk analysis for aircraft R and D project is made, and the whole system's risk status is illustrated by equi-risk contour chart.