Application of multiscale analysis-based intelligent ensemble modeling on airport traffic forecast

The air transport industry crucially depends on traffic forecasting for supporting management decisions. In this study, a singular spectrum analysis (SSA)-based ensemble forecasting modeling approach is proposed. The original air passenger time series is first decomposed into three components: trend, seasonal oscillations, and irregular component. The trend is predicted by generalized regression neural network (GRNN), where as seasonal oscillations are predicted by radial basis function networks (RNFNs). The empirical results of Hong Kong (HK) air passenger data show a significant improvement of the proposed ensemble method in comparison to other results of competing models.