An interacting multiple model based aircraft trajectory conformance prediction method

Trajectory conformance monitoring is an approach to detect the trajectory deviation between the actual flight execution and scheduled flight plan, issue the alert and take necessary maneuvers timely to avoid further deviation. In order to reduce the trajectory uncertainty, the conformance of flight trajectory should be monitored. Thus, it is essential to monitor the trajectory performance during the flight operation so that the safety and efficiency of airspace can be guaranteed. In this paper, we propose an algorithm to monitor the trajectory conformance based on Interacting Multiple Model(IMM), which consists of three parts: mode judgement, state judgement and prediction nonconformance. Aircraft trajectory conformance is determined by flight mode and state. If there is a possibility of nonconformance, the time and location will be predicted. The prediction results are required to help pilots and controllers prevent or compensate for trajectory deviation in advance, and reduce the probability of aircraft trajectory nonconformance. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm is effective and robust.