A structured risk scenario analysis framework and case study of reserve regulation in non-ferrous metal markets

Reserve regulation in non-ferrous metal markets is crucial for stabilizing the market supply and demand relationship and ensuring a stable supply and demand relationship. This study proposes a “Background-Action-Response” (BAR) framework for structured risk scenario analysis in metal markets. The copper release event by China's National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration in 2021 is used as a case study to analyze the effectiveness of the release behavior on market stability. The framework and methodology provided in this study offer decision-makers a systematic approach to identify and respond to risk scenarios in stockpiling and release decision analysis.