TY - JOUR
T1 - A spatiotemporal network with multi-task learning for highway traffic flow forecasting
AU - Li, Cheng Wu
AU - Xu, Meng Ling
AU - Wang, Yun Bin
AU - Cao, Jian Dong
AU - Dong, Xin Yu
AU - Tang, Tie Qiao
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2026 Elsevier B.V.
PY - 2026/9/15
Y1 - 2026/9/15
N2 - Multi-step highway traffic flow forecasting remains challenging due to complex spatiotemporal dependencies and heterogeneous node characteristics in highway monitoring networks. This study develops an MT-STNet-based forecasting framework for unified traffic flow prediction at entrance toll stations, exit toll stations, and gantries. Specifically, a directed graph is constructed to represent the highway network, where different node types are embedded into a unified framework to characterize traffic propagation patterns. On this basis, MT-STNet jointly incorporates historical traffic flow, temporal information, node identity, and road network structural attributes to capture temporal evolution, dynamic spatial correlations, and static topological dependencies. The model performs direct multi-step prediction for heterogeneous monitoring nodes within a single learning framework. Experiments are conducted on real-world highway data collected from Yunnan Province, China, from July 1 to August 31, 2024. Comparative results against the selected benchmark models, including SARIMA, SVR, and LSTM_BILSTM, show that MT-STNet consistently achieves the best performance among these baselines across all node types and the overall evaluation. In the overall pooled evaluation, MT-STNet yields an MAE of 2.839, an RMSE of 4.270, and a MAPE of 38.60%, outperforming the strongest baseline by 15.10%, 14.53%, and 18.55%, respectively. The proposed model provides an effective solution for short-term traffic flow forecasting in heterogeneous highway monitoring networks.
AB - Multi-step highway traffic flow forecasting remains challenging due to complex spatiotemporal dependencies and heterogeneous node characteristics in highway monitoring networks. This study develops an MT-STNet-based forecasting framework for unified traffic flow prediction at entrance toll stations, exit toll stations, and gantries. Specifically, a directed graph is constructed to represent the highway network, where different node types are embedded into a unified framework to characterize traffic propagation patterns. On this basis, MT-STNet jointly incorporates historical traffic flow, temporal information, node identity, and road network structural attributes to capture temporal evolution, dynamic spatial correlations, and static topological dependencies. The model performs direct multi-step prediction for heterogeneous monitoring nodes within a single learning framework. Experiments are conducted on real-world highway data collected from Yunnan Province, China, from July 1 to August 31, 2024. Comparative results against the selected benchmark models, including SARIMA, SVR, and LSTM_BILSTM, show that MT-STNet consistently achieves the best performance among these baselines across all node types and the overall evaluation. In the overall pooled evaluation, MT-STNet yields an MAE of 2.839, an RMSE of 4.270, and a MAPE of 38.60%, outperforming the strongest baseline by 15.10%, 14.53%, and 18.55%, respectively. The proposed model provides an effective solution for short-term traffic flow forecasting in heterogeneous highway monitoring networks.
KW - Heterogeneous nodes
KW - Highway networks
KW - Multi-task learning
KW - Spatiotemporal modeling
KW - Traffic flow forecasting
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105042662652
U2 - 10.1016/j.physa.2026.131709
DO - 10.1016/j.physa.2026.131709
M3 - 文章
AN - SCOPUS:105042662652
SN - 0378-4371
VL - 698
JO - Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications
JF - Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications
M1 - 131709
ER -