A quantitative analysis on policies of China’s fuel cell electric vehicle industry

Fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) are still in the early phases of development, largely influenced by policy measures. However, the current support policies have not effectively fostered the growth of the FCEV industry. Moreover, most existing research is based on qualitative analysis, which falls short in tackling this issue. This study developed a policy evaluation model that combines the analytic hierarchy process and content analysis (AHP-CA) to assess the differences between ideal and actual policy distributions, grounded in AHP and CA theories. Furthermore, CA-industry chain analysis model and CA-value chain analysis model were constructed. These models utilize a two-dimensional matrix to evaluate how policies are distributed across the industry chain and value chain. The results show that: In terms of policy types, preferential fiscal and tax policies exhibited a large negative deviation (-0.29), while comprehensive macro-policies policies exhibited a large positive deviation (0.17). In terms of policy instruments, demand-oriented policy instruments demonstrated a large negative deviation (-0.09), while environment-oriented ones demonstrated a large positive deviation (0.06). In terms of specific policy measures, a large negative deviation was observed in government procurement (-0.15), and a large positive deviation in policy strategies (0.13). From the perspective of the industrial chain and value chain, the supply side still needs to be further strengthened. It is proposed to enhance fiscal and tax preferential policies to further address the economic barriers in the early stages of FCEV industry development. Specifically, a demand-oriented approach should be adopted, with government procurement as the main measure. Additionally, efforts should be made to guide the improvement of supply-side capabilities and to enhance the demonstration and guidance for private consumption. Future research will focus on ways to classify policies and policy-making mechanisms that can adapt to changes over time.