A fuzzy-logic method considering cognitive process for human reliability analysis of space launch mission

Human plays an important role in operation tasks and this paper proposed a human reliability analysis (HRA) method for space launch mission. And fuzzy logic system is used as a tool to estimate human error probability (HEP) of the missions in this paper. There are four performance shaping factors (PSFs) which have great influence on human performance based on investigation of space launch missions. According to Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method (CREAM), each PSF has influence on control mode, which was used as representation of HEP. But it is cognitive process that is directly influenced by PSFs and has straight influence on human performance, so it is necessary to consider cognitive process as a part of HRA in the field of space launch, and it is the core of the study. In this paper, the method of fuzzy logic system is used to realize the analysis process from PSFs to cognitive process and then to human performance, and HEP can be estimated finally.