2020—2060 年中国森林碳汇及碳移除潜力分析

By using Miami model and GIS spatial analysis model, forest carbon sinks and direct CO₂ emissions in China at a 10*10 km grid from 2020 to 2060 were comprehensively simulated, spatiotemporal characteristics of carbon removal in forest carbon sinks were analyzed, and the contribution of carbon sinks to achieving the goal of carbon neutrality was further explored. The results showed that direct CO₂ emissions in China showed a persistent downward trend from 2020 to 2060, with an average annual decrease rate of 2.89%~4.19%. Forest carbon sinks showed a persistent upward trend, with an average annual growth rate of 1.83%~2.29%. From the spatial perspective, direct CO₂ emissions and forest carbon sinks performed regional heterogeneity. Provinces with higher CO₂ emissions were mainly distributed in eastern provinces such as Shandong and Hebei, while provinces with higher forest carbon sinks were mainly distributed in provinces (or autonomous regions) like Inner Mongolia and Jilin. From the temporal perspective, the ratio of forest carbon sinks to direct CO₂ emissions gradually increased, and the number of provinces that had achieved net-zero emission target significantly increases from 2020 to 2060. Specifically, only Tibet could achieve net-zero emission goals in 2020 under the effect of forest carbon sinks. In 2060, 14 and 10 provinces (or autonomous regions and municipalities) would achieve near-zero emission targets in the SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. Furthermore, by comparing the SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios, the implementation of sustainable development strategies was crucial to achieving the “Dual-carbon” goals. The research results identify the pivot role of forest carbon sinks in achieving China’s “Dual-carbon” goal, thereby providing a solid data foundation and theoretical support for policymaking of carbon sinks.