星座卫星爆炸对空间碎片环境演化的影响分析

A space debris evolution model is developed to address potential hazards from constellation satellite explosions，integrating the continuity equation with a topological network model. Subsequently，the coupled effects of constellation satellite explosions，deployment altitudes，the number of satellites，and the post mission disposal（PMD）time on the space debris environment are investigated. The results indicate that satellite explosions worsen the space environment. Taking an example of a constellation deployed at an altitude of 1 200 km with 1 440 satellites，a 1% increase in the explosion rate of satellites leads to an approximate 18% overall increase in the number of space objects. Moreover，the 25-year rule falls short of sustainable development of the space with constellations. Thus，reducing the explosion rate and improving PMD strategies are crucial for ensuring space security.