Urbanisation, agriculture and convergence of carbon emissions nexus: Global distribution dynamics analysis

Urbanisation and agriculture have been commonly used in the studies of carbon emissions. However, the issue of convergence of carbon emissions and intensity across countries with different urbanisation and agrarian structures has been under-researched. Unlike previous studies, we examine whether the urbanisation level and the agrarian orientation determine the tendency for countries' relative carbon intensity (REPGDP) and relative per capita carbon emissions (REPC) to converge over time. We employ the display tools of the distribution dynamics approach and a panel of 217 countries from 2000 to 2016. The main findings are as follows. First, with one exception, two to four convergence clubs will emerge across all groups of countries in the long run. Second, most of the clubs occur at values far from (below and above) the global average emissions level. Third, we construct the ‘policy priority list’ consisting of the above-average carbon emitters with a high tendency to diverge further from the global average in the coming years. Accordingly, we identify the least urbanised (most agrarian-oriented) countries with a REPC value of around 2.2 (1.9) to have a 65% (80%) probability of further divergence. Fourth, the results based on the REPC vis-à-vis the REPGDP variable are largely different. The study extends the existing knowledge about the urbanisation, agriculture and carbon emissions nexus and offers policy recommendations.