Towards quantifying fuel savings in global air transport with fleet upgrades

This study evaluates the fuel consumption implications of various global passenger reassignment and replacement scenarios. By leveraging detailed flight data for November 2024, including aircraft types, routes, passenger loads, and fuel usage estimates, we model hypothetical scenarios where passengers in inefficient aircraft operations are reassigned to other aircraft or these aircraft are replaced entirely with newer, more fuel-efficient alternatives. The analysis considers operational constraints, such as aircraft range and capacity limitations. We find that with the current technology, under the best cooperation assumption and availability of aircraft, the fuel usage in global air transport could be reduced by more than one third. Limiting passenger reassignment and aircraft replacements within the scope of an airline, the maximum achievable reduction in global fuel consumption is estimated with 19%. Our study contributes to the growing body of literature on sustainable aviation.