Technological-economic assessment and prediction of fuel cell heavy duty truck in China: A life cycle perspective

The heavy-duty road transportation sector currently faces significant challenges in achieving deep decarbonization. Fuel cell trucks are considered a promising solution to these challenges; however, their economic feasibility requires improvement. To investigate the techno-economic dimensions of fuel cell trucks, we have developed a cost analysis framework. This framework integrates the impacts of technological advancements and economies of scale, resulting in a comprehensive bottom-up model for assessing the life cycle costs associated with fuel cell medium- and heavy-duty trucks (Classes 3-6 and Class 8). Utilizing this model, we evaluated the costs of fuel cell heavy-duty trucks (Class 8) in China and simulated potential cost scenarios for the years 2026, 2030, and 2035. The findings indicate that fuel cell heavy-duty trucks are becoming economically competitive under specific hydrogen supply conditions, although their average cost, which ranges from 7.66 to 9.01 CNY per kilometer, remains relatively high. Furthermore, the analysis reveals that fuel cell heavy-duty trucks are projected to achieve a cost advantage over electric heavy-duty trucks between 2026 and 2030, and over conventional diesel trucks between 2030 and 2035. These findings are essential for understanding the pathways and timeline for decarbonization within the heavy-duty road transportation sector.