Storage reliability analysis of explosive initiator using time series model

The explosive initiator is one kind of sensitivity products with long life and high reliability. To improve precision of storage reliability analysis, the method of storage reliability analysis for explosive initiator was proposed using the time series model based on the character of pyrotechnics and its storage reliability and its sensitivity test data. In the method, the maximum likelihood estimations of sensitivity distribution parameter were obtained from the up-down test data, and the shrinkage estimation for scale parameter was obtained by combining the sample information with prior information. The simulated result shows that the shrinkage estimation is better under certain conditions. The time series models were used to describe the relation between the sensitivity distribution parameters and storage time. And the models were estimated by least square method with the distribution parameters estimations. Then the distribution parameters were predicted based on the models. The confidence interval of storage reliability was obtained with fiducial inference. The illustrative example shows that the method is reasonable and available for storage reliability analysis of the explosive initiator with high reliability.