Stability criterion of supply chain based on system dynamics

To conduct quantitative analysis on the stability of supply chain system with Order-Up-To (OUT) policy, a system-dynamics-based criterion for stability judgment was proposed. With simulation, the criterion could be used to describe the nonlinearities of supply chain system with 1st order exponential lag and Pure Time Delay (PTD). The criterion could be used to judge the influences exerted on supply chain stability by decision behavior. The simulation demonstrated two different results. Firstly, the 1st order system was usually stable, but there was fork effect as decision parameter changed. Secondly, there was a critical stable bound in PTD system, which determined feasible field of decision.