Simulation assessment for technical risk of complex product development process

The concept of technical risk in complex product development process was discussed, and a relationship model for three type's technical risks (i.e. cost risk, schedule risk and performance risk) was established. A multilayer simulation model for technical risk assessment based on design structure matrix was proposed with considering the concurrent and iterative characteristic of complex product development process. The effect of performance risk on schedule and cost risk during simulation assessment was adequately analyzed, and the deflection of traditional simulation assessment which considered only cost risk and schedule risk was corrected by a new simulation algorithm based on two layer sampling technique. Furthermore, a simulation algorithm was given to calculate probability and consequence of activity. It could assess the likelihood estimation of several risks of sub item or activity, and provided a criterion to control risk of development process according to risk value.