Resilience-oriented adaptive predictive maintenance optimization for continuous process manufacturing systems considering mission profile variation

Continuous process manufacturing systems (CPMSs) are typical phased mission systems that require high standards of operational stability, reliability, and safety. With the variation of production mission profiles, CPMSs are required to run in diverse modes or conditions in different phases; therefore, to meet these standards, maintenance decisions applied to CPMSs should be adapted to such variations. Considering that the concept of “resilience” provides a systematic solution to evaluate system adaptability via “disruption absorption” and “recoverability,” this paper proposes a CPMS resilience evaluation model and utilizes it as guidance for the optimization of CPMS predictive maintenance (PdM). The proposed method consists of the following steps: (1) applying a customized Seasonal Trend Decomposition model to predict the future trend of production mission profile variations, (2) assessing the production mission accomplishment capability of CPMS based on a Gamma process model of equipment performance degradation, (3) using disruption response ratio to evaluate CPMS resilience based on mission accomplishment capability, and (4) proposing a Simulated Annealing Q-Learning algorithm for adaptive PdM optimization, which keeps resilience above a threshold level while minimizing maintenance costs. The applicability and effectiveness of the proposed method are validated by an industrial case study of a nuclear fuel rod shielding component CPMS.