Research on monitoring and forecasting of project performance based on stochastic S curves

Stochastic S curves (SS curves) consider about the probabilistic characteristics of cost and duration, and show the relationship between cost, duration and project progress. Based on SS curves, new parameters of cost variation (CV) and schedule variation (SV) were proposed to realize the monitoring of project performance. Considering the correlation between the past performance and the future performance, according to the cost performance indices (CPI) and schedule performance indices (SPI) of actives or project, the cost and time parameters of the activity which was in process or which was not started were adjusted. Then, using the simulation method, the cost variation at completion (CVAC) and the schedule variation at completion (SVAC) were obtained, and the forecasting of project performance was realized. Finally, a case study involving a 3-story housing project was performed to verify the capability and utility of the new method of performance monitoring and forecasting based on SS curves in the real world.