Research on failure rate forecasting method based on ARMA model

According to the characteristics of failure rates, combined with the comparative results of several time series analysis methods, the conclusion that the auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) model is the most suitable failure rate forecasting method is obtained. The basic idea, the forecasting model and steps of failure rate forecasting based on the ARMA model are discussed. The failure rates of Boeing flights in a certain airline company are forecasted based on this method. Results show that the ARMA model is suitable for failure rate forecasting, and its veracity is better than traditional methods.