Research of Travel Time Reliability Evaluation Method for Road Network Considering Vehicle Coordination under Unexpected Events

Unexpected events can significantly affect the travel time of vehicles, however intelligent driving technology improves vehicle coordination, thereby mitigating these impacts. To evaluate the travel time reliability of road network in such scenarios, this paper designs a traffic modeling and simulation method to obtain the travel time of road section with the consideration of both unexpected events and vehicle cooperation. Based on the simulation results, a VC-BPR function is proposed to modify the traditional BPR function, and the Monte Carlo method is used to evaluate the travel time reliability of the road network. An urban road network is used as a case to demonstrate the effectiveness of this method, and the results show that the travel time reliability under unexpected events increases along with that of vehicle coordination. Notably, after the degree of vehicle coordination falls below 70%, the travel time reliability experiences a significant decline.