Remaining useful life prediction for bivariate deteriorating systems under dynamic operational conditions

The existing studies on degradation modeling and remaining useful life (RUL) prediction have typically been conducted on the basis of the following two assumptions: one is the single degradation indicator, and the other is the neglect of the influence of dynamic operating conditions. However, they are oversimplified for the real-world situations. In this paper, a bivariate degradation modeling method based on the Bayesian dynamic model (BDM) and a joint RUL distribution prediction method is proposed. The covariate model is adopted to illustrate the influence of the dynamic operating conditions on the degradation process. A time-varying copula method is used to describe the joint RUL distributions of the bivariate system. A real case study on the microwave device is conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness and validity of the proposed method.