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Remaining Useful Life Prediction and Uncertainty Quantification with Multi-Branch Deep Networks and Probabilistic Calibration

  • Xin Zhou
  • , Fanping Wei*
  • , Xiaobing Ma
  • *Corresponding author for this work
  • Beihang University

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

Abstract

Accurate remaining useful life (RUL) prediction is a key enabler of safe equipment operation and effective predictive maintenance. In practice, operating variability often induces distribution mismatch between training and deployment data, undermining the accuracy and transferability of existing models. We propose a multi-branch framework that hierarchically fuses CNN, BiLSTM, and Transformer components to learn robust degradation representations across diverse conditions. The model is further augmented with an uncertainty module that combines snapshot ensemble and Monte Carlo dropout to estimate epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties, and employs conformal prediction to construct prediction intervals with statistical coverage guarantees. Experiments on the C-MAPSS turbofan and A123 lithium-ion battery datasets show improved performance on challenging multi-condition subsets, achieving lower RMSE and Score than strong baselines while maintaining high interval coverage.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of 2025 IEEE International Conference on Sensing, Diagnostics, Prognostics, and Control, SDPC 2025
EditorsDong Liang, Di Wang
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Pages187-192
Number of pages6
ISBN (Electronic)9798331577391
DOIs
StatePublished - 2025
Event2025 IEEE International Conference on Sensing, Diagnostics, Prognostics, and Control, SDPC 2025 - Chongqing, China
Duration: 21 Nov 2025 → 23 Nov 2025

Publication series

NameProceedings of 2025 IEEE International Conference on Sensing, Diagnostics, Prognostics, and Control, SDPC 2025

Conference

Conference2025 IEEE International Conference on Sensing, Diagnostics, Prognostics, and Control, SDPC 2025
Country/TerritoryChina
CityChongqing
Period21/11/25 → 23/11/25

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

  1. SDG 7 - Affordable and Clean Energy
    SDG 7 Affordable and Clean Energy

Keywords

  • Aero-engine
  • Battery Degradation
  • Predictive Uncertainty
  • Remaining Useful Life
  • Uncertainty Quantification

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