Quantitative appraisement model of technical risk for weapon system based on GERT simulation technique

From the perspective of quantitative appraisement for technical risk, technical risk and its quantitative indexes were defined. Based on Arena simulation software, and combined with a weapon system development project, its GERT simulation models of both single subsystem and multiple subsystems, which possessed chance failure and over again the programs were established. The simulation outputs were analyzed by statistical methods, and the quantitative indexes of technical risk for project and subsystem were proposed respectively, such as the percentages of over budget cost and schedule delay, and the variation coefficients of cost and schedule. A technical risk rating scheme which could represent technical risk rating synthetically was given.