Quantification method of effects of uncertainty on component performance for turbo-shaft engine performance

The cumulative effect of uncertainty in engine component performance may stack up to affect the engine overall performance. In order to quantify the impact of uncertainty in engine component performance on turbo-shaft engine performance, a probabilistic model of turbo-shaft engine based on Monte-Carlo probabilistic design method was implemented. Results show, uncertainty of normal distribution in component performance has an obvious impact on the engine performance prediction. Compared with the calculation results of engine performance 100% meeting the targets utilized the deterministic engine performance model, the probability of the engine output power meeting the target is 49.32% and the probability of the engine SFC meeting the target is 50.83%. The calculated results of the model are reasonable and the root-mean-square error is less than 3%. Under employing the control law with limiting the turbine inlet temperature, the probabilities of the engine output power and SFC meeting the target further decrease.