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Option pricing with fuzzy measures under Knightian uncertainty

  • Li Yan Han*
  • , Juan Zhou
  • *Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Conventionally We describe the risk with a unique probability measure. However, Ellsberg paradox indicates that the existing of Knightian uncertainty would have an effect on both decision-makers' behavior and asset pricing. In this paper we propose an option pricing model under Knightian uncertainty using the λ-fuzzy measure and the Choquet integral, and we get the equilibrium price of European option on a non-dividend-paying stock. The equilibrium price is an interval instead of a determinate number, which is in accordance with Epstein's conclusion. Subsequently we do an empirical research and the outcome indicate that parameter A which can describe human subjective sentimental will change with volatility of personal mood. Moreover, this will pave a new way to cope with other derivatives pricing under Knightian uncertainty.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)123-132
Number of pages10
JournalXitong Gongcheng Lilun yu Shijian/System Engineering Theory and Practice
Volume27
Issue number12
StatePublished - Dec 2007

Keywords

  • Choquet integrals
  • Knightian uncertainty
  • Option pricing
  • λ-fuzzy measures

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