Nonlinear and stochastic mechanisms of the solar cycle and their implications for the cycle prediction

Solar activity shows an 11-year (quasi)periodicity with a pronounced, but limited variability of the cycle amplitudes. The properties of active region (AR) emergence play an important role in the modulation of solar cycles and are our central concern in building a model for predicting future cycle(s) in the framework of the Babcock–Leighton (BL)-type dynamo. The emergence of ARs has the property that strong cycles tend to have higher mean latitudes and lower tilt angle coefficients. Their non-linear feedbacks on the solar cycle are referred to as latitudinal quenching and tilt quenching, respectively. Meanwhile, the stochastic properties of AR emergence, e.g., rogue ARs, limit the scope of the solar cycle prediction. For physics-based prediction models of the solar cycle, we suggest that uncertainties in both the observed magnetograms assimilated as the initial field and the properties of the AR emergence should be taken into account.