Measuring the Spatial Spillover Effects of Multimodel Transit System in Beijing: A Structural Spatial Vector Autoregressive Approach

Changes in local transit passenger flow may cause a spatial spillover effect across the involved regions and affect traffic patterns in other regions. To identify the affected areas and the traffic patterns, this study develops an enhanced spatial vector autoregressive (SpVAR) model to investigate relations in public transport systems in the case of sudden large passenger flow impact. The proposed model captures the interacted correlation within different transit models in separated regions. Three representative commuting regions in Beijing, namely, Zhongguancun, Guomao, and Huilongguan, are employed for empirical study. Results confirm the existence of spatial spillover effect in the commuter regions and reveal heterogeneous effects of multimodal transit system on regions with different distances.