Mapping bushfire risk based on scale division and factor analysis: A case study from Victoria, Australia

This study presents an enhanced model for assessing bushfire risks in Victoria, Australia, by integrating scale division, factor analysis, and geographic information system (GIS) technology. The proposed model focuses on three key aspects: i) historical bushfire disasters, ii) the natural environment, and iii) socioeconomic factors. This model also utilises the data based on the deformable grid in GIS for quantitative analysis. Factor analysis, which employs Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method, was used to extract principal components and determine factor weights by simplifying complex data for better usability and understanding. The efficacy of the model was validated using data from the 2019–2020 Black Summer bushfire, which showed an accuracy of over 50 % accuracy in identifying high-risk areas. The model may overlook critical weather variations and regional microclimates; therefore, more detailed seasonal data should be included to enhance the precision and applicability of the model in future research.