Long-term evolution and lifetime analysis of geostationary transfer orbits with solar radiation pressure

The dynamical evolution of geostationary transfer orbits (GTOs) is a fundamental issue for the space debris mitigation in this orbit region. In this paper, the long-term dynamical evolution and orbital lifetime of low-inclination GTOs are investigated based on the Semi-analytic Tool for End of Life Analysis software (STELA) with the solar radiation pressure (SRP) and Earth's shadow taken into account. We carry out numerical investigations of long-term orbital evolution of objects with area-to-mass ratio (A/m) between 0.02 m²/kg and 1 m²/kg in the GTO region. Their dynamical orbital lifetime is recorded and presented in the Ω–ω (right ascension of ascending node–argument of perigee) plane to investigate its dependence on the initial conditions and physical parameters, particularly the initial azimuth of the Sun with respect to the apsidal line and the value of A/m. Based on these results, we further analyze the effect of SRP on the long-term dynamical evolution, as well as the solar apsidal resonances. The results are helpful to enrich the knowledge about long-term evolution and orbital lifetimes of GTO objects with relatively high A/m as well as to promote uncatalogued objects observation and identification.