Life Prediction Method for Satellite Communication Payloads based on Accelerated Degradation Tests

Due to the harsh environment of orbital space, once satellite communication payloads are deployed, they cannot be repaired or replaced, leading to high reliability and long lifetimes requirement. However, current researches lack methods for reliability assessment and lifetime prediction of them. This study proposes a method for predicting the lifetime of communication payloads through accelerated degradation test. A pre-test is first conducted to identify the experimental conditions and degradation-sensitive parameters. Then, a three-month accelerated degradation experiment is performed under three stress conditions, and the degradation parameters are measured. An optimized power-law model is used to predict the pseudo-failure lifetime, with the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test confirming the lognormal distribution of the lifetime data. The Arrhenius model is applied to verify the consistency of the failure mechanism under accelerated conditions, establishing a linear relationship between the logarithm of pseudo-failure lifetime and temperature inverse. This method enables reliable lifetime prediction for communication payloads under varying temperature conditions, offering valuable insights for the design and maintenance of long-life communication systems for space applications.