Health effects of future dioxins emission mitigation from Chinese municipal solid waste incinerators

Dioxins (including 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin, as Group 1 Carcinogen) in the atmosphere mainly originate from incomplete combustion during municipal solid waste (MSW) incineration. To significantly reduce dioxins emission from the MSW incineration industry, China has promulgated a set of ambitious plans regulating MSW-related pollution; however, the emission reduction potentials and concomitant environmental and health impacts associated with the implementation of these programs on a national scale remain unknown. Here, we use real measurements from official environmental impact assessment systems and continuous emissions monitoring systems (covering 96.6% of national MSW incinerators) to estimate unit-level dioxins emission and concomitant environmental and health impacts. We find that in 2018, 99.3% and 66.7% of Chinese incinerators met such concentration and temperature standards, respectively, controlling the total emissions to 19.6 g toxic equivalency quantity and maintaining carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic risks significantly below safety levels nationwide. Fully achieving both current standards and future regulations will reduce emissions and health risks by 67.7% and 62.6%, respectively, with waste sorting program contributing the majority. This study reveals substantial benefits from curbing MSW-related dioxins pollution and underscores the promise of ongoing management.