Health and economic benefits of reducing air pollution embodied in GBA's green and low-carbon development

The Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macau (GBA) metropolitan of China is pioneering in realizing environment-friendly development. However, health and economic burden attributed to air pollution under different climate and end-of-pipe control scenarios has not been evaluated. This study applies the IMED|CGE, WRF-Chem and IMED|HEL models assess PM_2.5- and O₃-associated health and economic consequences. Results demonstrate that PM_2.5 concentration in 2050 will drop by 12.9% and 56.4% under 1.5 °C target and end-of-pipe technology, respectively, contributing to 7.7% and 35.6% decreases in mortality and 67.3% and 97.9% reductions in morbidity. The O₃ concentration will decrease by 8.3% and 13.3%, respectively, contributing to 10.4% and 15.2% drops in mortality and 10.8% and 15.8% declines in morbidity. Besides, the health loss saved by alleviating PM_2.5 and O₃ pollution using end-of-pipe technologies is remarkable, amounting to 31.0 and 9.3 billion USD in 2050, respectively. It suggests that O₃ pollution in GBA is difficult to be addressed and higher levels of end-of-pipe technology progress should be deployed to obtain significant co-benefits.