Green growth: The economic impacts of large-scale renewable energy development in China

This study assesses the economic impacts and environmental co-benefits of large-scale development of renewable energy (RE) in China toward 2050 using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with distinguished improvements in the power sector. Two scenarios are constructed: a reference scenario assuming conventional development of RE and an REmax scenario assuming large-scale RE development by tapping China's RE potential. The results show that large-scale RE development would not incur a significant macroeconomic cost. On the contrary, it would have significant green growth effects that benefit the growth of upstream industries, reshape the energy structure, and bring substantial environmental co-benefits. If the share of RE reaches 56% in the total primary energy in 2050, then non-fossil power sectors will become a mainstay industry with value added accounting for 3.4% of the GDP, a share comparable to other sectors such as agriculture (2.5%), iron and steel (3.3%), and construction (2.1%). In RE max scenario, the large scale RE development will stimulate the output worth of $1.18 trillion from other RE related upstream industries and create 4.12 million jobs in 2050. In addition to economic benefits, it could substantially reduce the emissions of CO₂ and air pollutants such as NO_x, SO₂.