Government intervention and firm investment

This paper examines how government intervention affects firms' investment and investment efficiency, focusing on the world's largest economic stimulus package (ESP) during the 2008 global financial crisis period. The RMB four trillion ESP aimed to restore the economy by promoting investment in priority areas. Thus it provided an exogenous shock to firms' investment environment and exacerbated the impact of government intervention on firms' investment and investment efficiency. We use propensity score matching to match government-intervened firms with their controls to reduce the endogeneity issue of government intervention. Our difference-in-differences analysis shows that government-intervened firms invested more than control firms. Further analysis shows that the source of funding for investment was mainly from bank loans rather than internal cash flows. However, the post-investment performance was poor. We find that the investment efficiency of government-intervened firms decreased and government-intervened firms overinvested after the ESP. Our results are robust to alternative model specifications and placebo tests. The findings suggest that government intervention can play a negative role in government-intervened firms.