Forecast method research of activity-centered materiel support cost

This article refers to forecast and analysis of materiel support cost in service during the development phase and presents an activity-centered materiel support cost forecasting method. The method is based on cost breakdown structure. First, the breakdown structure of support cost is established according to the detail level of support activities. Then each cost item every year in service in that structure is estimated on the basis of the frequency of support activities and revised in accordance with the number of materiel in use and support resources. After that, the cost and its percentage in total costs of each item are identified. Support cost is analyzed and high cost item in services, whose causes are analyzed by researchers, is found. Improvement actions reducing support cost are adopted. At last, an activity-centered materiel support cost forecasting case for a communication device is given, which provides effective technical support for support cost prediction for related personnel.