Estimation of an origin-destination matrix with random link choice proportions: A statistical approach

The use of statistical modeling in the estimation of Origin-Destination (OD) matrix from traffic counts is reviewed. In particular, statistical models that consider explicitly the presence of measurement and sampling errors in the observed link flows are discussed. This paper proposes treating the link choice proportions as random variables. Accordingly, new statistical models are formulated and the corresponding Maximum Likelihood Estimator and Bayesian Estimator of the OD matrix are developed. The accuracies of these estimators are compared with those obtained by previous methods.